环塔里木盆地非对称性增温变化及其对特色林果物候期的影响

Variation of Asymmetric Warming and Its Effect on Phenophase of Special Forest Fruits over Tarim Basin

为揭示气候变暖中增温的非对称性对植物物候产生的影响,基于塔里木盆地1980—2014年的气象及物候观测数据,分析了该地区主要特色林果物候期对非对称性增温变化的响应。结果表明:35年来,研究区年平均最高、最低气温在时间变化上呈非对称性增长,年平均最低气温变化倾向率为年平均最高气温的2倍,春季气温增幅明显高于其他季节。几种林果春季物候期普遍提前,秋季物候期相对推迟,年平均气温每升高0.1℃,生长季平均延长1.5天。春季物候期大部分与当月及前一个月的平均气温、最高、最低气温呈极显著负相关(P<0.01),与前一个月的月均日较差呈极显著负相关(P<0.01)。春季气温变化是影响林果物候期的关键因子,月平均最低气温的变化对林果物候期的影响高于月平均最高气温。

The paper aims to reveal the impact of asymmetric temperature change in climate warming on plant phenophase. The authors analyzed the response of special forest fruit phenophase to the asymmetric warming inTarim Basin based on the meteorological and phenological observation data during 1980-2014. The resultsshowed that： over the past 35 years, the annual average maximum and minimum temperature in the regionincreased with asymmetry in time series, and the change tendency rate of annual average minimum temperaturewas 2 times warmer than that of the annual average maximum temperature; the increase of temperature inspring was more obvious than that in other seasons; the spring phenophase of several kinds of special forestfruits was commonly earlier while the autumn phenophase was postponed; as the annual average temperatureincreased by 0.1℃, the growing season extended by 1.5 days on average; thus, spring phenophase of mostspecial forest fruits was extremely and negatively correlated with the average, the highest and the lowesttemperature of the current month and the previous month（P〈0.01）, and also had extremely negative correlation with the monthly average diurnal range of the previous month（P〈0.01）. In conclusion, the temperature changein spring is the critical factor for the phenophase of special forest fruits, and the variation of monthly averageminimum temperature affects the phenological period of fruits more significantly than the monthly averagemaximum temperature.