考虑媒体播报效应的双时滞传染病模型

An Epidemic Model With Dual Delays in View of Media Coverage

在疾病控制过程中,媒体的重要性举足轻重.该文旨在建立并分析一个含有媒体效应的多时滞传染病模型,研究模型的稳定性,并通过分析相应特征方程根,分别研究在时滞不同的5种情况下,系统的稳定性发生变化,以及产生Hopf分支的条件.再利用持续性理论,证明模型的持续生存性.最后将时滞模型研究结果应用于苏格兰小儿肺炎中,验证媒体效应对疫情控制起到的重要作用以及时滞大小对模型稳定性的影响.

A multi-delay epidemic model in view of media coverage was established and analyzed. By means of the corresponding characteristic equation roots,the stability of the system was studied under 5 different time delay conditions,and the existence of the Hopf bifurcation was discussed. Furthermore,for a basic reproduction number greater than 1,the system＇s uniform persistence was proved based on the persistence theory. At last,numerical simulations were conducted to verify the analytical predictions and evaluate the effects of media coverage and time delays on the control of emerging infectious diseases.