基于LEAP模型的能源规划与CO_2减排研究——以辽滨沿海经济区区域为例

Forecasting Community Energy and CO_2 Emission Using LEAP Model:A Case Study in Liaobin Coastal Economic Zone

目的为从法规、政策、规划和计划层次上削减碳排,对辽滨沿海经济区区域能源规划及CO2减排进行研究,实现区域能源规划的科学性.方法采用长期能源可替代规划系统LEAP模型,在基准发展情景和区域能源规划发展情景下,分建筑业用能、商业用能和居民生活用能3个部门进行CO2排放量模拟预测.结果模拟结果得出:相比于基准情景,区域能源规划发展情景下,2010—2030年CO2排放总量减少了7.1×105t,CO2的排放量比基准发展情景降低了44%.结论在区域能源规划中引入LEAP模型对区域节能减排进行研究的方法是科学有效的,辽滨沿海经济区区域能源规划对于区域节能减排有着重要作用,为未来区域建筑的低碳节能奠定基础.

To reduce CO_2 emission in the aspects of laws and regulations,policies and plans,Community energy planning and CO_2 emission forecasting were studied using long-range energy alternatives planning system（ LEAP） model. CO_2 emission in three departments which are energy use in building industry,energy use in commercial and energy use in residents＇ living were forecasted in the baseline scenario and community energy planning scenario. The result shows that compared with the baseline scenario,CO_2 emission in community energy planning scenario was reduced by45%. In conclusion,its scientific and effective that used LEAP model in community energy conser-vation and CO_2 emission reduction.