高铁建设与县域经济发展——基于卫星灯光数据的研究

High-speed Rail Construction and County Economic Development:The Research of Satellite Light Data

自2008年以来,由于高铁的开通;中国许多县告别了没有火车站的历史,这为研究高铁建设与县域经济发展的因果关系提供了很好的案例。本文选取2008—2013年首次开通高铁的县作为处理组,使用"匹配倍差法"考察了高铁开通对"高铁县"经济发展带来的影响。基于卫星灯光数据的研究发现,第一,高铁开通对县级市和县经济发展带来不同影响,高铁开通对有高铁的县级市经济增长贡献为34.64%,而对县级单位经济增长的影响不明显;第二,高铁开通促进了"高铁县"投资的增加,平均而言"高铁县"的固定资产投资增加了37%,约合10.86亿元;第三,高铁开通对"高铁县"产业结构则没有产生显著的影响。在稳健性检验中,替换经济增长衡量方法、变换时间断点以及改变估计策略等均得到类似的结果。最后,文章从空间溢出的角度解释了高铁的差异性影响。

Since 2008, many of China＇s county ended the history of no railway station for the opening of High-speed rail, this provides a good case for the study of causal relationship between the constructions of high-speed railway and the development of county economy. This paper select the first opened high-speed rail county in 2008 ～ 2013 as the treatment group, and examine the impact of high-speed rail on county economic development by using Difference in Difference with Matching. Based on the research of satellite light data, we found that the opening of high-speed rail has different impact on economic development of countylevel city and county by first. Relative to county without high-speed rail, high-speed rail contributed 34. 64% to county-level city economic growth, but the impact on county is not obvious. Second, the opening of high-speed rail promotes the investment of high-speed rail county, the fixed asset investment of high-speed rail county increased by 37%, about 1. 086 billion Yuan. Third, the high-speed rail has no impact on counties＇ industrial structure. In the robust check, replace the measure of economic growth, transform the time breakpoint and change the estimate methods, we get the same results. Finally, the paper explains the differences of the high-speed impact from the perspective of spatial spillover.