中国农产品出口东盟影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of China's Agricultural Products Export to ASEAN

2001年以来中国对东盟农产品出口额呈现出不断增长、贸易逆差在近年迅速减少的态势,本文基于修正的CMS模型对中国整体和分类农产品出口东盟增长的影响因素进行动态分解分析。结果显示:在第一层次分解中无论是整体还是分类农产品的增长均是竞争效应和结构效应共同作用的结果,其中第一、三类产品以竞争效应为主,第二、四类产品以结构效应为主;在第二层次分解中,竞争效应方面,无论是整体还是分类农产品多数阶段基本上都源于整体竞争效应。结构效应方面,整体农产品源于市场效应和商品效应的共同作用,第一、四类产品市场效应与商品效应的作用在增强,第二类产品增长效应的作用在增强,第三类产品近期源于增长效应。二阶效应方面,无论是整体还是分类在多数增长阶段为负,但其纯二阶效应在第一、二、三类产品上多数增长阶段为正。

Since 2001, China＇s agricultural products exports to ASEAN have shown a steady growth, and the trade deficit has shown a rapid decrease in recent years. This paper decomposes the factors affecting the growth of China＇s overall agricultural products and classified agricultural export to ASEAN based on the CMS model. The results show that the export growth of both the overall and the classified agricultural products is the combination result of the competition effect and structural effect in the first level decomposition. Among them, the export growth of the first and third types of agricultural products is mainly based on the competition effect, and the growth of the second and fourth types is mainly dominated by structural effects. In the second decomposition, both the export growth of the overall and the classified agricultural products come from the overall competition effect. As for the structure effect, the export growth of the overall agricultural products comes from the market effect and commodity effect. And the market effect and commodity effect of the first and fourth types are increasing, the growth effect of the second type is increasing, and the export growth of the third type mainly depends on the growth effect in the latest phase.For both the overall and classified agricultural products, the two-stage effect is negative in most stages, but the pure two-stage effect is positive on the export growth of the first, second and third types of agricultural products.