燃煤电厂碳捕集与封存技术改造投资的激励措施评价研究

Study on evaluation of incentive measures for carbon capture and storage retrofitting investment in coal-fired power plants

煤电在我国电力供给中长期占据主导地位,2016年燃煤机组装机容量占比超过57%。燃煤电厂的CO_2排放量一直居高不下,碳捕集与封存技术(CCS)是实现燃煤电厂近零碳排放的重要途径。由于CCS技术尚未成熟,整体仍处于示范阶段,投资面临的不确定性较高,此阶段政府出台正确的激励措施尤为重要。采用实物期权方法并结合三叉树模型对CCS改造投资的激励措施进行探究评价,并提出相应的政策建议。研究结果显示,提高脱碳发电的上网电价能够对CCS改造投资产生较为明显的激励作用。提高碳价或对CCS改造前期成本进行补贴会产生一定的激励效果,但效果不佳。因此,政府可针对CCS脱碳发电制定合理的电价政策以促进CCS技术在燃煤电厂中的应用。

The coal power had occupied a dominant position in the electricity supply in China for a long time and the total installed capacity of coal-fired units accounted for more than 57% in 2016. Carbon capture and storage technology （CCS） is an important way to achieve near zero emissions of coal-fired power plants while CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants was tremendous all the time. However, because the CCS technology was not yet mature, which was still in the demonstration stage, and the investment would face higher uncertainties, it was particularly important for the government to develop incentive measures at present. In this paper, the real options approach was used combined with the trinomial tree model to explore and evaluate the incentive measures of CCS retrofitting investment, and it put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. The research results showed that increasing tariff power of CCS decarburization power could produce obvious incentive effect on CCS retrofitting investment. Improving the carbon price or subsidizing the cost of CCS retrofitting would also have some incentive effect, but the effect was not favorable. Therefore, the government could make a reasonable electricity tariff policy for the CCS decarburization power to promote the application of CCS technology in coal-fired power plants.