政府高额赤字对国家利益和经济增长速度有什么影响?

What impact do large government deficits have on a country's interest rates and economic growth rate?

财政赤字对经济发展和国家利益的影响是学术界和决策层关注的重要问题,也是一个易于引起激烈争论的话题.经济结构的复杂性、发展阶段的差异性以及研究视角的独特性使得关于财政赤字的宏观经济效应的研究结论丰富多样.迄今为止,相关研究普遍认为,短期和适度的财政赤字是宏观经济周期性波动以及"自动稳定"的财政政策综合作用的结果,对一国经济增长和国家利益并无根本性的影响;反周期调节的积极财政政策导致的结构性赤字,如果实施得当,反而有助于促进经济增长.但是,由制度和社会原因、政府政策失当以及剧烈的外部经济冲击导致且经过较长时期的持续积累而形成的高额财政赤字,在满足一定条件的情况下,将通过以下3个渠道对一国经济增长和国家利益造成严重的损害:第一,高额赤字如果导致政府过度借债,将会引发政府信用危机,进而触发金融和经济危机,最终严重威胁一国的政治经济安全以及国家利益;第二,财政赤字的持续累积,将会引致货币供给大幅增长,可能引发恶性通货膨胀,从而严重损害一国经济增长和国家利益;第三,长期累积的财政赤字,将会引发长期的贸易赤字,导致本国资本流失,产出和就业萎缩,这将会对本国经济增长造成不利影响.基于中国的实证研究发现,当前中国的财政赤字率尚未达到"高额"赤字的程度,财政赤字并没有明显引致通货膨胀和贸易赤字,政府债务依然在风险可控的范围内.但是中国当前正处于结构转型的关键时期,政府财政支出需求大大增加,出现财政赤字的可能性显著上升,当前中国政府需要谨慎处理好短期财政支出激增带来的赤字上升与长期经济增长之间的矛盾,正确评估财政赤字的经济效应,做出科学、合理、有效的财政决策.

The impact of fiscal deficit on economic development and national interests is an important issue in the academic circles and decision-makers, and also is a hotly debated topic. The complexity of economic structure, differences of development stages, and uniqueness of the research perspective made the conclusion of the research on the macroeconomic effects of the fiscal deficit rich and varied. So far, the related research is generally believed that short-term and moderate fiscal deficit is the comprehensive result of cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations and ＇automatic stability＇ fiscal policy, which has no fundamental effect on a country＇s economic growth and national interests. However, under certain conditions, the continued accumulation of high fiscal deficit will cause serious damage to a country＇s economic growth and national interests through the following three channels. Firstly, If the high fiscal deficit leads to excessive government borrowing, it will trigger a financial and economic crisis, which will become a serious threat to a country＇s political economic security and national interests; Secondly, If the continued accumulation of high fiscal deficit leads to a substantial increase of money supply, it will ultimately cause the hyperinflation, which will seriously damage a country＇s economic growth and national interests; Finally, the long-term accumulation of fiscal deficit will lead to long-term trade deficit, resulting in the loss of domestic capital, output and employment shrinking, which will adversely affect the country＇s economic growth. Nowadays, China is in the critical period of structural transformation, and the demand of government fiscal expenditure is increased greatly, which will increase the likelihood of fiscal deficit significantly. Chinese government should deal with the contradiction between the increase in the fiscal deficit caused by the increase of short-term fiscal expenditure and the economic growth in the long run, and valuate the economic effects of the fiscal deficit in order to make scientific, reasonable and effective fiscal decisions.