人口集聚及外商直接投资对环境污染的影响——以中国39个城市为例

Influences on environment pollution by population agglomeration and foreign direct investment

利用我国39个城市2005-2015年的面板数据,通过构建综合环境污染指数,运用探索性空间数据分析方法分析了人口集聚以及FDI对环境污染的影响。结果显示:在我国主要大中城市中,人口集聚度对环境污染的影响呈倒U型曲线关系;FDI资金集聚对环境污染的影响曲线呈U型;在逆距离空间权重矩阵下,相邻地区FDI资金集聚对本地区的环境污染影响曲线呈倒U型;在经济距离和综合距离空间权重矩阵下,城市环境污染存在时间维度的路径依赖和累积叠加效应;经济距离权重矩阵情况下,人口集聚对环境污染的影响比综合权重矩阵作用效果更大;在随机效应空间杜宾模型中,相邻地区的FDI集聚对本地区的环境污染无法判定曲线形状;在经济距离矩阵下,相邻城市的人口集聚对本地区的环境污染呈倒U型趋势;综合权重矩阵下的动态空间杜宾模型估计结果表明,城市环境污染存在正向空间溢出效应,其余的结果表明环境污染存在负向的空间溢出效应。据此认为,在综合考虑城市具体空间区位的条件下,人口适度集聚,合理拓展城市规模,疏解城市过密人口以及合理利用外资是未来城市环境治理的重要方向。

Based on the panel data of 39 cities of China from 2005 to 2015,the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Method was used to study the effects of urban population agglomeration and FDI on environmental pollution by constructing comprehensive environmental pollution index. The empirical results show that urban population concentration in the major large and medium cities in China shows an inverted U-shaped curve on the environmental pollution. The influence curve of FDI accumulation on environmental pollution is U-shaped. Under the spatial weight matrix of inverse distance,the influence curve of FDI accumulation on the environmental pollution in the neighboring areas is inverted U-shaped. Under the economic distance and the integrated distance of spatial weight matrix,there are time-dependent and cumulative superposition effects of urban environmental pollution; Under the economic distance of spatial weight matrix,the effect on population concentration is greater than that of comprehensive weight matrix. In the random effect space Durbin Model,the accumulation of FDI in the adjacent areas cannot determine the curve shape of the environmental pollution.Population concentration in adjacent cities under the economic distance matrix presents an inverted U-shaped trend towards environmental pollution. The results also show that there is a positive spatial spillover effect in urban environment pollution,and the rest of the results show that there is a negative spatial spillover effect in environmental pollution. Therefore,under the condition of taking into account the specific spatial location of the city,it is an important direction for the future of urban environmental governance to properly agglomerate the population,expand the scale of the city reasonably,ease the urban population and rational use of FDI.