基于MRIO模型的中国参与全球价值链就业效应研究

Research on the Employment Effect of China's Participation in GVC Based on MRIO Model

本文在总贸易核算框架下构建了GVC就业效应分析模型,对中国参与GVC不同模式的就业拉动量进行测算,并通过结构分解法分析不同参与模式下拉动就业的影响因素。研究结果表明:中国整体后向参与率高于前向参与率,初级产品和资源产品及服务业主要以前向模式参与GVC,制造业主要以后向模式参与GVC;制造业是低技术劳动力就业的主要拉动行业;劳动密集型制造业及初级产品和资源产品对总体和低技术劳动力就业的拉动能力最强,技术密集型服务业对高技术劳动力的就业拉动能力最强;最终品和中间品出口是就业量变化的主要影响因素,技术密集型制造业就业量受技术水平提高的影响较小,后向参与模式中,国外增加值率是资本密集型行业就业量增加的主要影响因素。

Based on the analysis of China＇s foreign trade export industry structure, this paper combs different modes of China＇s participation in global value chain（GVC） and its employment effect. Under the framework of total trade accounting, this paper builds the employment effect model of intermediates import and export and analyzes the factors that influence the employment effect under different patterns of participation in GVC through Structure Decomposition Analysis. The results show that from participation pattern, China＇s primary products and resources products and service industry participate in GVC mainly in forward way, and manufacturing is mainly in backward way; Manufacturing is the main driving force for the employment of low-skilled labor; labor-intensive manufacturing and primary products and resources products have the strongest driving force on the overall and low-skilled labor employment. The technology-intensive service industry has the strongest promote effect on high-tech labor force. The export of final products and intermediate goods is the main influencing factor of the change of employment. The employment rate of technology-intensive manufacturing industry is less affected by the technical level. In the backward mode, foreign value added rate is the main influencing factor of the capital-intensive industry.