基于引力模型的中国金融服务贸易便利化研究——以中国自贸试验区为视角

Research on China's Financial Service Trade Facilitation Based on Gravity Model——From the Perspective of China's Free Trade Zones

中国入世后,货物贸易获得巨大发展,而金融服务贸易发展严重滞后。本文应用引力模型对中国建立自贸试验区前的双边金融服务贸易的影响因素和出口潜力进行分析,结果显示:出口国的金融服务贸易限制政策对金融服务出口具有显著的抑制作用,且制定区域贸易协定对金融服务贸易也不一定产生促进作用。另一方面,中国对主要的金融服务出口市场,如对美国的金融服务贸易发展稳定,但对于日本和欧盟内多数国家的金融服务贸易仍处于"贸易不足"的状态,贸易的潜力依然巨大。因此建议重点在中国自贸试验区探索金融服务贸易便利化改革,放松金融服务贸易限制,释放潜力。

After China＇s accession to the WTO, the goods trade has obtained tremendous development, while the development of financial services trade has seriously lagged behind. The data shows that China＇s financial services trade has great potential as well as a high level of restrictions. This paper analyzes the influencing factors and export potential of bilateral financial services trade before the establishment of free trade zones in China. The results show that the financial service trade restriction policy of exporting countries has a significant negative effect on the export of financial services, and the development of regional trade agreements does not necessarily have a positive effect on trade in financial services. On the other hand, with China＇s major financial services export market,such as the United States and Hong Kong, China＇s financial services trade has a stable development, but with Japan and most countries in the EU, China＇s financial services trade is still in the＂under-capacity＂state, which means trade potential is still huge. Therefore, it is proposed to explore the facilitation reform of financial services trade in China＇s free trade zones, to relax the trade restrictions and release potential of financial services.