摘要
为了分析金沙江流域降水量变化特征,根据该流域28个雨量站1971~2011年月降水量资料,应用基于ArcGIS平台的泰森多边形法,计算了流域年和四季的平均降水量;使用基于ArcGIS平台的反距离权重空间插值法,分析了降水量及其变化趋势的空间变化情况;运用线性回归分析、滑动平均法、Kendall秩次相关法以及降水集度法,分析了年和四季降水量的变化趋势以及年内分配情况;通过Mann-Kendall检验法分析了降水量的突变性;采用小波分析法对年和四季降水量进行了周期分析。结果显示:金沙江流域降水量空间分布不均;年、春季、夏季和冬季降水量呈增加趋势,秋季降水量呈减少趋势,降水量年内分配呈季节性变化;春季、夏季和秋季降水量突变开始的时间分别为1999,1979年和2001年;年及四季降水量变化周期为5~22 a。
The spatial-temporal variation of rainfall in the Jinsha River basin is investigated by using monthly precipitation data collected from twenty-eight meteorological stations between 1971 and 2011. Voronoi method which is based on Arc GIS platform is applied to calculate average annual and seasonal precipitation. Spatial interpolation method of inverse distance weighting,also based on Arc GIS platform,is utilized to analyze the spatial variation in precipitation and its variation trend. Linear regression method,moving average method,Kendall ranking test and precipitation concentration index are used to analyze variation trend in annual and seasonal precipitation and its distribution throughout the year. The mutation of precipitation is studied by Mann-Kandall rank statistic method and the periodical changes in precipitation are analyzed by Morlet wavelet. The results show that the spatial distribution of precipitation was uneven. The precipitation of annual,spring,summer and winter showed an increasing trend,except for the autumn; its distribution followed a seasonal variation. The sudden change in the precipitation of spring,summer and autumn occurred in 1999,1979 and 2001 respectively; there was an annual and seasonal precipitation cycle of 5 to22 years.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2017年第23期50-55,65,共7页
Yangtze River
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2015CB452701)
