中国与全球化引申的经济趋势判断

Judgment of Economic Trend Extended by China and Globalization

进入21世纪,全球化发展的基本趋势是合作大于竞争。中国在全球经济治理中扮演着越来越重要的角色。21世纪前十年,技术和制度是全球化的主要动力,2020年后,全球将迎来新的科技革命和更加激烈的创新竞争,科技创新成为推动经济社会发展的主动力,而贸易保护主义、人口结构老龄化、城市病蔓延、环境污染日趋严重则是全球经济发展的主要制约因素。2020~2035年,全球将进入一个新的相对高速发展期。2035年,中国将基本实现社会主义现代化,目前中国已经具备迈入现代化的诸多有利条件,但发展过程中还需解决发展不平衡不充分的一些突出问题。

With entering the twenty-first century, the basic trend of globalization is that cooperation is greater than competition. China plays a more and more important role in the global economic governance. In the first ten years of the twenty-first century, technology and system is the main driving-force of globalization. After 2020, the world will usher in a new revolution in science and technology and will face more fierce competition of innovation. Technological innovation will become the main driving-force to promote economic and social development. Otherwise, there will face some main factors restricting the global economy development. They are trade protectionism, the aging of population structure, urban diseases spread and serious environmental pollution. From 2020 to 2035, the world is likely to enter a period of new relatively high speed development. In 2035, China will basically realize socialist modernization. At present, China has already had many favorable conditions for modernization. However, there are still some outstanding problems on disparate and insufficient development that need to be solved in the process of development.