防范化解重大风险前提的积极财政政策转型

The Transformation of Active Fiscal Policy on the Premise of Preventing and Resolving Major Risks

为应对金融危机的冲击,世界主要经济体都采取了扩张性财政政策,导致政府债务水平高企,财政风险积聚。财政风险作为经济运行新的不确定性因素,成为公共风险的重要来源。由各种内外部因素导致的公共风险迭代变化是传统财政政策效应递减的主要因素。在财政扩张不可持续、政府应对公共风险责任日趋增加的条件下,财政政策应当在公共风险与财政风险之间作出权衡,在控制财政支出扩张的基础上有效应对公共风险。这就要求财政政策从调节总量向调节结构、调节利益转变,从传统财政政策的"冲击-支出-乘数-总量"转向"行为-风险-治理"的新逻辑。

In Response to the impact of the financial crisis, major economies in the world have adopted an expansionary fiscal policy. It led to high government debt levels and fiscal risks. As a new uncertainty factor of economic operation, fiscal risk has become an important source of public risk. It is considered that the iterative change of public risk caused by various internal and external factors is the main factor of diminishing the effect of traditional fiscal policy. Under the condition that the fiscal expansion isn＇t sustainable and the government responds to the increasing responsibility of public risk, the fiscal policy should make a trade-off between public risk and fiscal risk. That is, to effectively control of public risk on the basis of controlling the expansion of fiscal expenditure. This requires that the fiscal policy should shift from adjusting the total amount to adjusting the structure and changing the interests, so as to shift from the impact-expenditure-multiplier-amount to the new logic of behavior- risk-governance.