京津冀产业协同发展评估：基于区位熵灰色关联度的分析

Evaluation of Coordinated Industrial Development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Circle:Evidence from the Grey Relational Analysis of Location Quotient

从三次产业发展的程度来看,京津冀分处于不同阶段,各地同一产业内部的各个行业之间也存在"断层"现象。本文运用区位熵灰色关联度分析法,分别从产业增加值、法人企业数目、城镇单位就业人数等三个维度计算了2010和2015年京津冀三地分行业的区位熵值,多角度跨时期地反映了京津冀三地产业内部的具体结构及其变动情况。考虑到城市和行业内部的结构差异,本文对灰色关联度指标进行修正,以企业法人数目计算出的区位熵为基础,计算2015年京津冀13个城市和11个行业各自的灰色关联度,对京津冀地区各城市和各行业的产业发展状况进行评估。最后,本文从制度设计、产业布局等方面提出了京津冀协同发展的针对性建议。

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Circle（ henceforth the Metropolitan Circle） consists of three regions at different stages of industrial development; moreover,even within one region＇s one economic sector,different industries are not equally developed. In this paper,we calculate the location quotient of every industry in the Metropolitan Circle,based on data in 2010 and 2015 from multiple dimensions（ i. e.,the value added of each sector,the number of enterprises,and the number of employees）,in order to reflect the inner structure within region-sector as well as the variations in these structures over time and across regions. To allow for potential structural differences across regions and industries,we calculate a modified grey relational grade based on the number of enterprises,and assess the industrial development status for each of the 13 cities and 11 industries in the Metropolitan Circle. Lastly,we discuss policy implications for coordinated industrial development in the Metropolitan Circle,particularly with respect to policy design and geographic distribution of industries.