基于改进的AD-AS模型评估浙江海洋生态承载力状况

An Evaluation of Marine Ecological Carrying Capacity in Zhejiang Province Based on the Modified AD-AS Model

将改进的AD-AS模型运用到海洋生态系统中,形成海洋生态承载力评估模型,选择浙江省为研究对象,构建包括自然、经济、社会三大因子的海洋生态承载力评估指标体系,经过等权重的赋权方法,对浙江省2004-2013年海洋生态承载力状况进行评估。结果显示,系统总供给指数与系统总需求指数的增减趋势相似,都呈现波动上升的趋势;2004-2013年浙江海洋生态承载力水平始终为可载,海洋生态环境较为健康。在研究结果的基础上,针对如何进一步加快浙江海洋经济发展提出相应的对策建议。

The modifed AD-AS model was applied to the marine ecosystem to form an assessment model for marine ecological carrying capacity. Zhejiang Province was chosen as the research object, and an evaluation index system of marine ecological carrying capacity including natural, economic and social factors has been constructed. The status of marine ecological carrying capacity in Zhejiang in the period of 2004 through 2013 was evaluated by means of equal-weighting method. The results showed that the change tendency of total supply index of the system was similar to that of its total demand index presenting a fuctuation in rising trend. It has been found that the marine ecological carrying capacity in Zhejiang was always at an available level and the marine ecosystem was fairly sound in that period. Based on the research, some countermeasures and suggestions on how to further expedite the marine economic development in Zhejiang were proposed.