基于标准降水指数的黑龙江省气象干旱特征分析

Meteorological Drought Characteristics in Heilongjiang Province Based on Standardized Precipitation Index

以黑龙江省27个气象站点1959-2014年的逐月降水数据为基础,计算不同时间尺度的标准降水指数,结合主成分分析法分析该省气象干旱的严重程度、影响范围、时空分布的多时间尺度特性。结果表明,黑龙江发生气象干旱的频率约为30%,省内气象干旱影响范围在1980年前呈扩大趋势之后逐渐缩小,2000-2014年干旱范围轻微增大后趋于稳定。气象干旱空间分布格局主要存在整体一致型和西北-东南对立分布两种态势。随着时间的变化,黑龙江在1980年后极端事件发生较多,2000年后旱化趋势显著。该结论可为研究区内的水资源分配及农业发展提供理论指导作用。

Based on the monthly precipitation data at 27 meteorological stations of Heilongjiang province from 1959 to 2014, the standardized precipitation index （SPI） with various time scales was calculated. The characteristics of meteorological drought severity, affected area and spatio-temporal distributions with various time scales were analyzed by combining SPI values and principal component analysis approach. The results showed that the occurrence probability of meteorological drought was almost 30% in Heilongjiang province; drought affected area was increasing before 1980 but after that it was shrinking until 2000, and then the affected area was enlarging to stay a steady condition during 2000 to 2014. There were two mainly situations of drought spatial distribution. One was that the regional drought condition had consistency with most individual stations, and the other one was that the drought in the northwest was opposite with that in the southeast. On the temporal distribution, extreme events occurred mostly after 1980 and the trend of drought was significantly after 2000. The conclusion can provide theoretical guidance for water resources allocation and agricultural development in the study area.