基于FSPA-SPEP模型的南宁市水资源承载能力及其影响因子分析

Evaluation and Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Its Influence Factors of Nanning City Based on FSPA-SPEP Model

针对水资源承载能力评价具有不确定性的特点,选择10个评价指标,采用模糊集对分析(FSPA)理论结合集对指数势(SPEP)建立FSPA-SPEP模型,以定量评估南宁市2005-2015年水资源承载能力并进一步分析其影响因子。结果表明,2005-2009年南宁市水资源承载能力明显降低,而自2010年南宁市大力推行节水型社会建设以来,水资源承载能力明显逐步提高,2010-2015年南宁市水资源承载能力最主要影响因子为生态环境用水率和日人均城市生活用水定额。建议南宁市加强节水型社会建设力度,促进社会经济可持续发展。

In order to solve the problem of uncertainty in water resources carrying capacity evaluation, this paper combines fuzzy set pair analysis with set pair exponential potential to establish FSPA-SPEP model by choosing ten indexes to quantitatively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity and its influencing factors of Nanning from 2005 to 2015. The results show that water resources carrying capacity of Nanning decreased significantly from 2005 to 2009, while water resources carrying capacity increased obviously from 2010, which reflected the effort of strengthening the construction of water-saving society in Nanning. The main affecting factors of water resources carrying capacity are environment water use rate and daily urban water consumption quota from 2010 to 2015. It is suggested that Nanning should strengthen the construction of water-saving society and promote the social and economic sustainable development.