基于Probit和Tobit双模型的农户节水灌溉技术采用行为研究——以张掖市为例

Farmers' Behavior of Adopting Water-saving Irrigation Technology Based on Probit and Tobit Double Model——A Case Study of Zhangye City

农户节水灌溉技术的采用对干旱缺水型地区的农业发展具有十分重要的意义。基于张掖市544份农户节水灌溉技术采用情况的调研数据,运用Probit模型、Tobit模型分别对农户节水灌溉技术的采用与否行为和采用率行为进行了实证分析,结果发现影响农户两种采用行为的显著性因素存在差异:年龄、受教育程度、距离最近集市距离、土地经营规模只显著影响农户节水灌溉技术采用与否行为,健康状况、家庭年收入、成本收益只显著影响农户节水灌溉技术采用率行为;农业收入占家庭总收入比重、效果水平、政府推广、政府补贴是显著影响农户两种采用行为的共同因素,其中政府推广和政府补贴对农户节水灌溉技术采用行为影响程度更大。基于此,最后提出有效开展推广工作、促进土地规模化经营、努力增加农民农业收入、提高节水灌溉技术性能、加大政府扶持力度几点措施。

The farmers＂ adoption of water-saving irrigation technology is of great significance for the development of agriculture in arid and water deficient areas. Based on survey data of 544 farmers＂ situation about adopting water-saving irrigation technology in Zhangye city, this paper respectively make empirical analysis on farmers＂ behavior of adopting water-saving irrigation technology and the adoption rate by using the Probit model and Tobit model. The results show that the significant factors influencing farmers＂ two kinds of adoption behavior are different; age, education level, the distance to the nearest market, the scale of land management only significantly influence the farmers＂ behavior adopting water-saving irrigation technology or not; health status, family income, cost-income only significantly affect farmers＂ adoption rate behavior; the proportion of agricultural income accounting for total household income, the effect level, government promotion and government subsidies are common factors that significantly affect farmers＂ two kinds of adoption behavior; among them, government promotion and government subsidies have a greater impact on farmers＂ behavior adopting water-saving irrigation technology. Based on this, the paper puts forward several measures including effective promotion, developing the large-scale land operation, increasing the agricultural income of farmers, improving the performance of water-saving irrigation technology, and strengthening government support.