技术进步与二氧化碳排放强度:理论与实证分析

A theoretical and empirical analysis of technical progress and CO_2 emission intensity

本文首先通过构建的理论分析框架,对技术进步影响二氧化碳排放强度的作用机制进行了解析。随后,运用DEA-Malmquist方法获取了中国37个行业的技术进步指数,并运用面板模型估计方法,实证分析技术进步对CO_2排放强度的影响,结果显示:针对全行业层面,技术进步有利于CO_2排放强度的降低;fdi规模的扩大也会降低CO_2排放强度,行业层面"污染天堂"假说并不成立;而固定资产投资规模的扩大和快速推进的工业化进程均会导致CO_2排放强度的上升;针对分行业层面,技术进步对CO_2排放强度的影响具有异质性;高能源效率行业的技术进步有利于CO_2排放强度的降低;低能源效率行业的技术进步则会导致CO_2排放强度的上升。产生异质性的原因可能在于,不同能源效率行业对初始技术进步的路径选择差异以及对已选择初始技术进步的路径依赖。

This paper first analyzes the effect of technology progress on CO2 emission intensity through a theoretical model. Then it computes the technical progressive index decomposed from DEA-Malmquist method of 37 industries in China. Besides,it uses the panel data model to study the effect of technology progress on CO2 emission intensity. The results reveal that for the whole sample,technical progress is the effective measure to reduce CO2 emission intensity and FDI could also reduce CO2 emission intensity significantly. Therefore,the pollution haven hypothesis does not exist at industry levels and the expansion of fixed assets investment and speeded industrialization could raise CO2 emission intensity significantly. At the industry level,the effect of technology progress on CO2 emission intensity varies： Technology progress of industry with high energy efficiency could significantly reduce CO2 emission intensity while industry with low energy efficiency would increase CO2 emission intensity. This heterogeneity may be explained by the difference in the choice of original technical progress path by industries with different energy efficiency and their dependence on the selected original technical progress path.