基于系统动力学的分布式可再生能源激励机制分析

System Dynamics Based Analysis on Incentive Mechanism of Distributed Renewable Energy Resources

国家和地方的清洁能源发展政策促进了清洁能源装机容量的井喷式增长,碳交易和绿色证书机制虽然都可以对清洁能源发展起到促进作用,但对于分布式和集中式的促进作用则显示出较大的不同。在分析证书价格传导过程的基础上,采用系统动力学方法从集中式可再生能源参与的批发市场和分布式可再生能源参与的零售市场两个层面进行建模,建立了碳排放权交易市场、绿色证书交易市场和电力市场三个宏观市场间的交互模型和包含分布式可再生能源的配电网模型。算例仿真了两种机制下集中式可再生能源、分布式可再生能源的发展轨迹,讨论了碳交易和绿色证书机制的价格设置对分布式可再生能源发展的影响,验证了提出的效益分享机制对分布式可再生能源的促进作用。

National and local clean energy development policies facilitate a spurt growth in installed capacity of clean energy. Although both carbon emission trading （ET） and tradable green certificates （TGC） trading can promote clean energy development, there are some differences between the effects on distributed and centralized renewable energies. Based on the conduction process analysis of the certificate cost, system dynamics method is used to build models in both wholesale market of centralized renewable energies and retail market of distributed renewable energies, respectively. The interaction model among TGC market, ET market and electricity market are built and the distribution system model containing distributed renewable energies is established as well. The developmental trajectories of centralized and distributed renewable energy are simulated and the influence on distributed renewable energy of TGC and ET price setting is also analyzed. On this basis, the facilitation on distributed renewable energy by the proposed incoming sharing mechanisms is verified.