雾霾天气对潜在海外游客来华意愿的影响——基于目的地形象和风险感知理论

Impacts of Haze on The Intention to Visit China of Overseas Tourists:Based on Destination Image and Risk Perception Theories

近年来,我国的雾霾天气受到公众及海内外媒体的高度关注,甚至被国际媒体列为全球旅游警告。学者研究发现,入境旅游的下滑期正是我国雾霾问题从显露到逐步严重并受到广泛关注的时段;也有学者认为,雾霾天气是影响入境旅游的主要障碍。然而,在空气质量未有明显改善的情况下,2015年我国入境旅游人数已呈现复苏的态势,从而使得雾霾天气与入境旅游关系变得扑朔迷离。文章围绕雾霾天气是否影响潜在海外游客来华意愿以及雾霾天气是如何影响潜在海外游客来华意愿两个问题,采用网络问卷调查法,以澳大利亚和美国居民为调研对象,采用因子分析、回归分析、方差分析法,依据目的地形象和风险感知的交叉理论,实证研究得出:空气质量已经成为中国目的地形象的重要组成部分。雾霾天气作为潜在海外游客来华旅游的主要风险感知因素,对中国旅游目的地形象造成了负面影响,并且潜在海外游客对中国空气质量的感知和对雾霾的担心已经超越了历史、文化、自然等核心吸引物的吸引,成为阻碍其来华意向的主要因素。研究进一步提出在目的地形象的测量中应增加风险因素,并需完善风险感知和情感评价测量。研究也发现不同群体对雾霾的感知存在显著差异。最后,从国家整体旅游形象危机宣传、空气质量信息传递、不同特征人群宣传差异等方面提出措施供相关部门参考。

In recent years, the topic of air pollution in China has attracted public and media attention at home and abroad. Even international media have presented the situation a global travel warning.Meanwhile, the numbers of inbound tourists in China have dropped. Tourism researchers have found that the period of inbound tourism dropping corresponds with the time of smog moving from an outbreak to a serious condition. One researcher has directly asserted that smog is a major obstacle to inbound tourism. However, from 2015 to the present, amid a condition of there being no significant improvements in the air pollution situation, the inbound tourist numbers in China show a strong recovery trend. This suggests the relationship between smoggy weather and inbound tourism is turbulent. This study aimed to examine whether the smog will affect potential overseas tourists＇ intent to visit China, and why. The study used a questionnaire of Australian and United States residents to accumulate data. In accordance with the theories of destination image and risk perception, the results were analyzed through factor analysis, regression analysis, and variance analysis. Some conclusions that could be drawn were that air quality has become an important part of the destination image of China, smoggy weather as a main form of risk perception has a negative impact on China＇s tourism destination image, potential overseas tourists＇ perceptions of air quality and fears of smog have surpassed the importance they ascribe to attractions of historical, cultural, natural, and other forms of merit, and the smog has become the main hindrance toward intent to visit China. This study proposes that risk factors should be included in measurements of destination image, and risk perception and emotional evaluation measurement need to be perfected. At the same time, the study also found there are significant differences in the perceptions of smog between the sexes, between people from different countries, between people who have been to China and those who have not, and between people who have different experiences with travelling abroad. Finally, this study puts forth some measures to serve as a reference for related management departments, including environmental management, efforts to combat a national tourism image crisis, creating websites about smog for dissemination of open and transparent information, and various approaches applying different promotional methods.