中间价形成机制进一步完善人民币清洁浮动特征初显——2017年人民币汇率走势及展望

The formation mechanism of central parity rate has been further improved and the RMB begins to present clean float characteristic---The review and outlook of RMB in 2017

2017年，人民币汇率形成机制改革再进一步，“收盘汇率＋一篮子货币汇率变化＋逆周期因子”的汇率形成机制有序运行，人民币汇率弹性进一步增强，双向浮动、清洁浮动特征明显，汇率预期更加平稳。展望明年，美联储加息进入下半程，欧央行步入货币政策正常化周期，国际外汇市场不确定性增强，人民币兑美元汇率料将保持较高的弹性双向波动，人民币兑一篮子货币维持基本稳定，人民币汇率市场化、资本项目可兑换程度及人民币国际化进程稳步推进。

In 2017, the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has been further deepened, and the exchange rate formation mechanism of ＂closing exchange rate ＋ changes of basket currency exchange rates ＋ counter-cyclical factor＂ has been running in an orderly manner. The elasticity of the RMB exchange rate is further enhanced,presenting obvious two-way fluctuating and clean float characteristics. The expectation on the RMB has been more stable. Lookinq into the next year, the Fed rate hike will enter into the second stage, the ECB is stepping into a cycle of monetary Dolicv normalization, and the uncertainty in the international FX market will rise. The RMB is expected to maintain two-wav fluctuations aaainst the USD with a hiah elasticitv, and will remain basically stable aqainst the basket currencies. The RMB exchange rate liberalization, the capital account convertibility and the internationalization of RMB will be steadily advancing.