“丝绸之路经济带”背景下兵团物流需求方法研究

A Study on the Corps' Logistics Demand under Background of “the Silk Road Economic Belt”

为更好地服务于丝绸之路经济带建设,促进新疆生产建设兵团区域经济发展,通过分析影响兵团物流需求量的因素,确定兵团物流需求主要影响因素。结合兵团的实际情况与预测方法的适用条件,分别选择灰色预测模型、BP神经网络模型和灰色-BP神经网络组合预测模型对兵团物流需求量进行预测。最后通过实证分析得出组合模型的精度最高,并应用灰色-BP神经网络组合预测模型对兵团的物流需求进行预测,为兵团区域物流总体规划提供参考依据。

In order to better serve the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and promote the regional economic development of Xinjiang Production and Construction Crops （XPCC）, through analyzing the factors influencing the Corps＇ logistics demand, the main influencing factors of the demand are determined. Combined with the actual corps＇ situation and the application conditions of the forecast method, the gray prediction model, BP neural network model and gray- BP neural network combination forecast model are selected respectively to forecast the Crops＇ logistics demand. In the end, the example analysis shows the combination forecast model has the highest precision applied on forecast of the Crops＇ logistics demand, and it also could provide reference for overall planning of the Crops＇ regional logistics.