金融发展对中国城镇化发展的空间溢出效应检验

Spatial Spillover Effect of Financial Development on China's Urbanization

以全国及31个省份1993~2015年的金融发展为解释变量,以我国各省份城镇化发展水平为被解释变量,实证分析在经济发展水平、城乡收入差距、出口依存度、第二产业比重、第三产业比重、人力资本等控制变量的作用下金融发展对我国城镇化发展水平的动态溢出效应,结果表明:无论是从全国还是各省域层面而言,金融发展均对我国的城镇化发展水平有较显著的空间溢出效应,即:各省域自身的金融发展在促进本省城镇化发展的同时,也影响着邻接省份的城镇化发展。同时,金融发展的空间溢出效应也一定程度上影响了我国各省域间城镇化的关系,故今后我国城镇发展中应充分重视本省金融发展水平、城乡收入差距、出口依存度等要素的作用,并充分考虑邻近省域相关政策变化对本省城镇化发展水平的影响。

With the financial development of China and that of 31 provinces from 1993 to 2015 as explanatory variable, with the urbanization level of each province of our country as explained variable, this paper makes empirical analysis of the dynamic spillover effect of financial development on China＇s urbanization under the influence of such control variables as economic development level, income gap between urban and rural areas,export dependence, proportion of secondary industry, proportion of tertiary industry, and human capital. The findings show that from national and provincial level, financial development has significant spatial spillover effects on China＇s urbanization. That means financial development in each province not only promotes the urbanization in that province, but also affects the urbanization of neighboring provinces. At the same time, the spatial spillover effect of financial development has, to some extent, affected the relationship among provinces in terms of urbanization. Therefore, in the development of towns, each province shall attach great importance to the financial development level, the income gap between the rural and urban areas, and export dependence within the province,and give full consideration to the impact of relevant policies in neighboring provinces on its urban development.