中国劳动收入份额变动的阶段性特征和驱动力:1978—2015年

Stage Characteristics and Driving Forces of Labor Income Share Changes in China: 1978-2015

改革开放后,中国的劳动收入份额的变动具有明显的阶段性特征,各个阶段的驱动力也存在显著差异。1978—1984年劳动收入份额短暂上升的主要驱动力是农业部门的改革。1985—1997年劳动力要素向非农部门转移以及由此引发的结构变动是劳动收入份额下降的主要驱动力。1998—2007年劳动收入份额继续下降的主要驱动力是非农部门的资本深化和技术进步,结构变动的影响在逐渐减弱。在经历长时期的下降后,劳动收入份额于2008—2015年期间再次呈上升态势,其主要驱动力是非农部门工资的快速增长。中国劳动收入份额的变动态势符合刘易斯二元经济理论,未来一段时间内劳动收入份额将呈继续上升态势。

The labor income share after the reform an d opening up in China has obvious stage characteristics, and there are significant differences in driving forces at all the stages. The major driving force of the short-term rise of labor income share is the reform of the agricultural sector during1978-1984. The structure change resulted from the factors of labor force transferred into non-agricultural sectors during 1985-1997 is the major driving forces of the decrease of labor income share. During 1998-2007, the major driving force for the continuous decrease of labor income share is the capital deepening and technological advances in the non-agricultural sectors, when the influence of the structural changes is decreasing gradually. After decreasing for a long time, the labor income share returned into the increasing trend again from 2008 to 2015, its major driving force is the rapid growth of wages in the non-agricultural sectors. The changing trend of labor income share in China conforms to Lewis＇ s dual economic theory, and the labor income share will go on to present an increasing trend in the future.