非技术变革下交通碳排放转移对碳排放长期演变的影响

Influence of transportation carbon emission transfer on long-term evolution of carbon emission under nontechnological change

为了明晰非技术变革因素下中国不同省市区间的交通运输碳排放转移对碳排放演变的影响,以了解省域交通行业碳排放演变特征,并针对性地开展政策完善与调控。基于系统动力学理论及演变情景分析,将交通运输碳排放的长期演变规律等作为基本假设条件,构建以广东省和黑龙江省为代表的高、低碳排放省份的交通运输碳排放转移演变动力学模型,并对其进行稳定性分析;运用MATLAB软件转化欧拉方程、差分方程等方法,通过忽略未来短期内能源技术变革因素影响下的数值模拟,获得不同政策调控参数下的高低碳排放省份独立发展、高碳排放省份净转出、低碳排放省份净转出3种情形下的交通运输碳排放长期演变规律。研究结果表明:高、低碳排放省份间交通运输碳排放转移的稳态以一个单位的净转移量为临界值存在;交通运输碳排放演变与各省份之间的碳排放转移程度和省内政策控制强度相关;高、低碳排放省份独立发展和高碳排放省份净转出时,其演变受高碳排放省份的影响较大;低碳排放省份净转出时,其演变受低碳排放省份的影响较大;实施不同强度的碳排放调控政策能够显著改变未来较长时期内交通运输碳排放量的峰值或达到峰值所需的时间。

In order to clarify the impact of transportation carbon emission transfer between different provinces and cities in China on its evolution of carbon emission under nontechnological change and know the evolution characteristics of carbon emission in transportation industry of provinces, based on the theory of dynamical systems and evolution scenario analysis, a dynamic evolution model of carbon emission transform in high and low carbon emission provinces, represented by Guangdong Province and Heilongjiang Province, was proposed in this paper by taking long-term evolution law of carbon emission in transportation as the assumptions. The MATLAB software was used to transform Euler equation, difference equation and other methods. Long-term evolution of transportation carbon emission was obtained for independent development of high and low carbon emission provinces, net transfer of high carbon emission provinces and low carbon emission provinces through numerical simulation which ignored the factors of energy technology change in the near future. The results show that steady state of transportation carbon emission transfer in high and low carbon emission provinces exists as the critical value of net transfer of a unit. Evolution of transportation carbon emission is related to the degree of carbon emission transfer between the provinces and the provincial polices control intensity. Evolution of independent development of high and low carbon emission provinces and net transfer of high carbon emission provinces is greatly affected by high carbon emission provinces. Evolution of net transfer of low carbon emission provinces is greatly affected by low carbon emission provinces. Implementation of different intensity of carbon emission regulation policy can significantly change the peak value or peak time of transportation carbon emission in the next long period. 2 tabs, 1 fig, 20 refs.