基于分布式模型的多维动态临界雨量山洪预警研究

Study on multidimensional dynamic critical rainfall flash flood warning based on distributed model

根据国内外山洪预警预报技术的最新进展,提出了以HEC-HMS模型为基础,考虑土壤含水量和起涨水位的多维动态临界雨量山洪预警方法。结合上流水文站1993~2003年实测资料,率定HEC-HMS模型参数,确定预警时间、预警流量以及雨型分配等关键因素,计算多维动态临界雨量,建立了山洪动态预警方案,经过历史致灾洪水检验,结果可靠。

According to the latest progress of mountain flood warning and prediction technology at home and abroad and based on the HEC-HMS model, a multidimensional dynamic critical rainfall flash flood warning method considering soil water content and rising water level was proposed. Combined with the measured data of upstream hydrological station from 1993 to 2003, the HEC-HMS model parameters were calibrated to determine the key factors of warning time, early warning flow and rain flow rate distribution, calculate the multidimensional dynamic critical rainfall, sets up a dynamic early warning scheme. After historical disaster flood test, the results were reliable.