中国城镇劳动者退休行为及延迟退休的福利效果

Laborers' Retirement Behavior and the Welfare Effect of Postponing Retirement Age in Urban China

本文采用期权价值考察中国延迟退休政策的福利效果。相同年龄下,当延迟退休增加了期权价值时,劳动者的福利会得到改善。本文利用中国城镇住户调查数据,结合现行养老金政策,计算工作的期权价值,并验证了期权价值对劳动者退休概率的影响。研究发现,期权价值越大,退休概率越小。在此基础上,本文模拟了延迟退休对不同性别和年龄的劳动者期权价值的影响。结果表明,在当前的缴费和待遇规则下,延迟退休对男性期权价值的影响并不大,但显著增加了女性的期权价值。延迟退休对不同工资和失业概率的女性有不同的影响,延迟退休给工资较高和失业概率较低的女性带来的福利改善更为显著。

This paper uses the model of Option Value （OV） to investigate the welfare effect of postponing retirement age in China. For those at the same age, laborers＇ welfare will be improved if postponing retirement age increases laborers＇ OV. Drawing upon the data of the Urban Household Survey of China, this paper calculates OV for each individual and examines the effect of OV on the probability of retirement according to the current social security policy. Empirical results show that the probability of retiring decreases as O~ increases. Furthermore, this paper simulates the impact of postponing retirement age on the OV of individuals of different sex and age. This study shows that the impact of postponing retirement age on the OV of male workers is minimal, whereas the effect upon women is significant. In addition, the effect upon women with different wage and unemployment ratio varies, with a more positive impact on women unemployment. with higher wage and lower possibility of unemployment.