中国城市生产率变化和经济增长源泉:2001～2014年

Productivity Change and the Source of Economic Growth of Chinese Cities:2001～2014

全要素生产率不仅是新古典增长理论研究的核心,也是中国的经济增长从要素驱动向创新驱动转变的重点所在。作者以中国4个直辖市和283个地级市2000~2014年的数据为基础,采用柯布—道格拉斯生产函数法,测算了城市的全要素生产率增长率和各要素投入变化及其对经济增长的贡献。研究结果表明:(1)2001~2005年,城市全要素生产率变化是经济增长的重要源泉,但2005年之后中国的经济增长表现出明显的物质资本驱动特征;(2)受资源型产业和重化工业产能过剩影响,2012年以来中部区域城市全要素生产率下降程度最高,呈现出"粗放"特征,2014年中部城市物质资本和全要素生产率贡献率分别为127.77%和-36.6%;(3)按照不同类型城市分组来看,2012年以来四线城市全要素生产率贡献率出现大幅下降,而一、二线城市全要素生产率贡献率出现了复苏迹象。

Improving the Total Factor Productivity （TFP） is not only the core of the new classical growth theory, but also the key point for China to change from factor driven to innovation driven economic development. Using Cobb-Douglas production function method, the authors estimate the TFP growth rate, the change of various factor inputs and their contribution to economic growth based on the panel data of 4 municipalities and 283 cities from 2000 to 2014. It is found that the TFP change is an important source of economic growth from 2001 to 2005, but after 2005 China＇s economic growth showed obvious characteristic of capital driven. Since 2012, due to the overcapacity of resource-based industry and heavy chemical industry, the TFP declines greatly in the middle region and shows the extensive growth features. In 2014, the contribution rates of capital and TFP in the middle region are 127.77% and -36. 6% respectively. According to different types of city groups, the fourth tier cities TFP contribution rate falls dramatically since 2012, while the first and second tier cities TFP contribution rates are showing signs of recovery.