外部冲击对仔猪价格的影响——以疫病为例

Effect of External Shocks on Prices of Piglet——A Case Study of Disease

为验证外部冲击对仔猪价格影响,以疫病为例,选取2009~2016年我国22个生猪主产区仔猪价格、生猪价格和疫病指数,运用VAR模型实证分析疫病冲击对仔猪价格影响。结果表明,疫病不仅影响仔猪价格,对生猪价格也有一定影响,疫病对仔猪价格的影响相当于生猪价格对仔猪价格影响的53.94%;疫病冲击导致仔猪价格一段时间内波动上涨;疫病对仔猪价格的影响,主要源自疫病对孕期母猪产仔情况影响。研究从疫病引发仔猪供需变化角度解释实证结果,并根据实证结果提出相应政策建议。

In order to verify the effect of external shocks on the prices of piglets, the prices of piglets, the prices of hogs and disease index from 2009 to 2016 were selected from China＇s 22 hog main producing areas, VAR model was used to carry on the empirical analysis on the effect of disease on the prices of piglets. The results showed the disease not only affected the prices of piglets but also affected the prices of the hogs. The effect of epidemic disease on the price of piglets was equivalent to 53.94% of the price of hogs. Disease effect would result in piglet prices rising for a period of time, but the rise was not monotonous, while the prices rise to the maximum fluctuations would be usually. The effect was mainly from the effects on maternal reproductive conditions caused by disease. The empirical results were explained from the point of view of the change of supply and demand, and the corresponding policy recommendations were presented based on empirical results.