日本房地产泡沫形成及“崩溃”的实像剖析

The Truth about the Forming and Collapsing of Japan's Real Estate Bubble

国内学者对日本的房地产泡沫及其崩溃问题存在一定认识误区。实际上,经济高速增长和快速城市化往往伴随着房地产价格高涨甚至房地产泡沫。房地产泡沫未必导致泡沫经济,也不必然发生崩溃,而是可能通过有效释放或挤出加以消融。日本1980年代中期出现的房地产泡沫,源于没有刚性需求的房地产炒作,其最终"崩溃"并不是泡沫爆裂后房地产价格的断崖式下跌,而是在日本政府直接干预下的逐渐挤出,并经历了长达20多年的缓慢下降。

Many Chinese scholars have always misunderstood the fact that how Japan＇s real estate bubble formed and collapsed. Actually, while the economy and urbanization developing rapidly, real estate mar- ket prices would be greatly inflated and even a price bubble would form. However, a real estate bubble may not certainly collapse or cause the bubble economy if the price bubble stress could be released or squeezed out by effective means. Japan＇s real estate bubble that began in the middle of 1980s was caused by the housing market speculation without rigid demand. Then the bubble burst, but the prices of real estate did not plummet to the ground. Japanese government has been playing an important role in the course. As a result, Japan＇s real estate bubble has been squeezed out gradually and prices have been declined gently over the last two decades.