反倾销保护对进口多元化的影响——基于中国微观企业的经验研究

The Effect of Antidumping Protection on Import Diversification——An Empirical Research from Chinese Micro Firms

以往关于反倾销贸易效应的研究忽略了进口增长的扩展边际,本研究首次估计了中国对外采取反倾销措施如何影响企业进口多元化。基于2000-2007年中国工业企业数据库、中国海关数据库和全球反倾销数据库的匹配数据,本文结合最邻近匹配技术和倍差法克服反倾销保护的内生选择问题。实证结果表明,中国对外反倾销措施显著降低了受保护企业的进口多元化水平,这一负面影响全部来源于企业从指控国进口多元化的萎缩且具有长期性;不同于进口流量,进口多元化不存在反倾销的贸易转移效应。民营企业和出口企业的进口多元化受反倾销影响更大;反倾销降低的主要是中间品进口多元化水平。本文的结论在改变函数形式、增加控制变量、替换反倾销度量指标和剔除加工贸易企业的情况下保持稳健。

Studies about trade effects of antidumping neglected the extensive margin of import growth. This paper is the first to estimate the impact of Chinese antidumping measures on firms＇ import diversification. Based on 2000--2007 matching data, including Chinese Industrial Firms da- tabase, Chinese Customs Trade database and Global Antidumping database, this paper solve endo- geneity problem of antidumping by combining methodologies of nearest neighbor matching and difference--in--difference. Empirical results show that antidumping measures imposed by China re- duce firms＇ import diversification, and the negative is only significantly in countries subject to anti- dumping, therefore, in contrast to import volume, there exist no trade diversion for import exten- sive margin. Import diversification reduction is exerted by private--owned firms as opposed to state --owned and foreign--owned firms, by exporters as opposed to non--exporters, and by intermedi- ate goods as opposed to final goods. Results remain robust when we use alternative models and indi- cators, control more firm--level variables, and drop processing firms.