生猪产业链价格波动的传导机制

Research on the Transmission Mechanism of Price Volatility of Hog Industry Chain

运用SVAR模型对我国生猪产业链价格波动的正向传导机制进行经验分析,通过状态空间模型实证分析猪肉价格对饲料价格、仔猪价格和生猪价格的敏感性。实证结果显示,当期饲料价格对其他三个环节的价格变化具有显著影响,当期仔猪价格和当期生猪价格并不会显著影响当期猪肉平均价格。猪肉平均价格水平受自身影响最大,且随着滞后期数的增加,影响逐渐降低,但受饲料、仔猪和生猪价格的影响,会随着滞后期数的增加而增大;猪肉平均价格对仔猪和生猪价格的敏感度较小,对饲料价格的敏感度较高。

This paper uses the SVAR model to analyze the positive conduction mechanism of the price fluctuation of hog industry chain in China and uses the state space model to analyze the sensitivity of pork price to feed price, piglet price and hog price. The empirical results show that when the feed price in current period has a significant impact on the other three prices, while piglet price and hog prices in current period will not significantly affect the average price of pork in the current period. The average price level of pork is affected by itself, and with the increase of lag periods, the influence decreases, but the price of feed, piglet and hog will increase with the lag periods. The average price of pork is less sen- sitive to the price of piglets and pigs, but it is more sensitive to the price of feed.