“ELG”假说的再检验——来自“中等收入陷阱”经济体的证据

The Retest of “ELG” Hypothesis——Evidence from Economies Which Are Trapped into “Middle Income Trap”

首先介绍了经济体总量层面以及双边层面出口贸易附加值核算方法,并利用WIOD数据库发布的世界非竞争性投入产出表核算了陷入"中等收入陷阱"经济体历年的出口贸易附加值。其次运用1995-2014年总量出口数据与核算的出口附加值数据,分别对该类经济体出口对经济增长的影响进行实证研究。结果表明:出口贸易总量与出口附加值总量对该类经济体的经济增长均具有显著的促进作用,但出口附加值对经济增长的促进作用远低于出口贸易总量对经济增长的促进作用。说明过去对"中等收入陷阱"经济体"ELG"假说的经验研究高估了出口对经济增长的正效应,"中等收入陷阱"经济体需要提升出口总量背后的出口附加值,避免陷入出口总量大而附加值低的局面。

Within intra-product trade phase,the real earning of exports will base on the calculation of exports in value added.Firstly,this paper introduced the calculation method of exports in value added by two dimensions of gross volume and industrial level,and then using the Input-output table released by WIOD database to calculate the exports in value added of "Middle Income Trap" economies.Secondly,using 1995-2014 gross exports volume and exports in value added data respectively to expand empirical study of the influence of exports on economic growth for middle income economies.Results show that both the gross exports volume and exports in value added prompt the economic growth,but the positive effect of exports in value added is lower than the gross exports volume,which reflect that the the past research about"ELG"hyhothesis on middle income economies overestimated the positive effect of exports.Middle income economies need to enhance exports in value added and avoid trapping into the situation that large export volume but low value added.