中国-加拿大建立自贸区的贸易潜力和福利效应——基于WITS-SMART模拟的实证研究

A Study of FTA's Trade Potential and Welfare Effect between China and Canada

在对中国加拿大贸易互补性分析的基础上,依据局部均衡理论,利用SMART模型模拟中加自贸区建立在不同阶段、不同程度的关税削减给贸易双方带来的经济效应,包括贸易效应、关税收入和福利效应。结论表明,中加两国在贸易产品上存在较强的贸易互补性:在短期情境下,加拿大进口商品数量增幅较大,贸易创造与贸易转移效应都较明显;在长期情境下,两国总贸易效应有显著增长,关税减让前关税较高的产品减让幅度较大,关税及福利总收入减少更显著。尽管中加自贸区的建立对两国关税总收入会有一定的负面影响,但两国贸易和福利效应得到较大提升,更大贸易投资潜力有待自贸区建成后充分挖掘。

Based on the local equilibrium theory and the WITS-based TRAINS database which provides the HS six quartile product code,the article uses the SMART model to simulate the effects which the establishment of China-Canada free trade area at different stages of tariff reduction can bring,including trade effects,tariff income and welfare effects.The results show that there is a strong trade complementarity between China and Canada in trade products.The trade effect of tariff reduction shows that,in the short term,the quantity of imported goods increase as well as the total trade effects(including trade Creation and trade diversion).In the long term,the trade effect is more significant as well as total trade effect.The wealth effect of tariff reduction shows that in the short term,products with higher tariffs tend to have a larger margin,and the total economic effect of most products is decreasing.In the long term,reductions in total tariff and welfare income are more obvious.Although the establishment of the China-Canadian Free Trade Area has a negative impact on the total tariff income of the two countries,the trade and welfare effects of the two countries have been greatly improved,and the greater potential needs the FTA to be fully built to dig out.