国际制造业转移与碳转移的时空耦合效应

Spatio-temporal coupling relationship between international manufacturing transfer and CO_2 emissions

针对不同国家碳排放责任的争论,从发展的角度研究不同国家由于承接国际产业转移而驱动本国产业变化从而影响碳排放非常有必要。本文以制造业碳排放为对象,分别选取了9个老牌发达工业化国家和9个新兴工业化国家和地区,分析制造业规模、制造业高碳负荷行业以及制造业碳排放格局的特征及其时空演化。研究发现全球制造业呈现了由欧美向日本转移、欧美日向亚洲四小龙转移、欧美日亚洲四小龙等向中国大陆转移的三个阶段。同时,以化工、焦炭、基本金属制造业、非金属矿产品、碱性金属以及纺织业为主的高碳负荷行业也逐步由发达国家向发展中国家转移。运用LMDI因素分解法从规模增长、结构转型和技术进步三方面对不同时期两组国家和地区制造业和碳排放变化的耦合关系进行解析,研究发现无论是结构、技术还是规模因素,新兴工业化国家和地区与发达工业化国家的变化趋势基本相同但都相对滞后,表明新兴工业化国家和地区通过承接老牌工业化国家的产业转移,促使工业规模提高和产业高碳化,导致制造业碳排放逐步提高。但是不同时期主导因素不同。

In the global climate summit, different countries debated their responsibility for emission reduction. While most developed countries accused developing countries of huge scale of emissions and put forward greater responsibilities, developing countries also argued for their own development rights and the transfer of carbon emissions from international industries. Hence, it is necessary to explore the temporal and spatial evolution of the relationship between international manufacturing transfers with carbon emission transfer. In this paper, nine old industrialized countries and nine newly industrialized countries and areas were selected. It was found that the global manufacturing industry shifted to Japan in the 1950s and 1960s, then to the Asian Tigers in the 1970s and 1980s, and then to China after 1990. At the same time, the high carbon-loaded industries had shifted to these developing countries and areas from developed countries, such as Basic metals, Chemicals and chemical products, Non- metallic mineral products, Fabricated metal products, Textiles and Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel. Using the LMDI method to analyze CO2 emission growth of two types of economies, we found that emerging industrialized countries and areas are lagging behind industrialized countries in terms of structure, technology and scale, but the overall evolution trend is similar. This indicates that newly industrialized countries and areas undertook industrial transfer of old industrialized countries. However, the contribution of industrial scale, structure, and technology is different in different countries and areas in different stages. Given scale growth always drives the rise in CO2 emission, technological improvements and structural improvements gradually lead the old industrialized countries into CO2 reduction status after 1985. On the other hand, CO2 emissions rise in newly industrialized countries and areas driven by scale growth. The high carbon intensity of industrial structure caused by industrial transfer has aggravated this trend since 1998. It is very important to determine the responsibilities and pathways of carbon reduction in different countries from the perspective of development.