基于验前信息的改进Bootstrap导弹命中精度评定方法

An Improved Bootstrap Method for Missile Hit Accuracy Evaluation Based on Prior Information

Bootstrap自助法通过将样本信息"提携"以增加原始样本的容量,但在小子样条件下所"提携"的再生子样的真实性会有所偏差。针对战术导弹命中精度评定中现场试验少、数据匮乏问题,通过改进非参数Bootstrap法的再生子样抽样方式,综合应用各类真实的验前信息,并引入重要度抽样思想,提高Bootstrap再生子样本的可信度,弥补现场试验数据的不足。仿真结果表明,该方法可有效提高对导弹命中精度评定结果的可信性。

The Bootstrap method increases the capacity of the original sample through the"carrying"sample information,butthe authenticity of the"carrying"sample information by this method will tie up the deviation in the condition of small sample. Inview of the lack of field test and lack of data in the hit accuracy evaluation of tactical missile,the regeneration of Bootstrap sub sam-ple credibility and compensate are improved for the lack of field test data by improving the nonparametric Bootstrap method regenera-tion sample sampling method,by applying various kinds of real prior information and by introducing importance sampling idea. Thesimulation results show that this method can effectively improve the reliability of missile hit accuracy evaluation results.