深水油田开发风险及应对策略

Risks for Deepwater Oilfield Development and Preventive Measures

与陆上及浅水油田相比,深水油田开发面临的突出挑战是开发投资大、开发风险高、调整余地小。如何在开发早期即制订合理的风险应对策略、实现风险的有效把控是深水油田开发的关键问题。调研和总结了近年来全球主要石油公司在深水油田开发风险应对方面的相关做法和经验,介绍了深水油田开发面临的技术风险、非技术风险、进度风险3类主要风险及其识别程序,并在此基础上,根据不同风险的差异,制订了6类典型油田开发策略;针对技术风险,提出应加快油藏信息获取,提高开发方案的适应性和灵活性问题,以最经济的方式降低油藏不确定性,最大限度地消除开发风险可能造成的影响。

As compared to onshore and shallow-sea oilfields, deepwater oilfield development faces a series of stern challenges, such as huge development investment, high development risks, and limited adjustment space. How to formulae reasonable risk control measures and bring risks under effective control at the early development stage holds the key to deepwater oilfield development. This article focuses on investigation and summarization of the relative methods and experiences from global oil majors in management of deepwater oilfield development risks, and then briefs about technological risks, non-technological risks and progress risks facing deepwater oilfield development as well as the procedures to identify these three types of risks. In addition, six typical oilfeld development schemes are formulated in accordance of the differences in various risks. To highlight technological risks, it is proposed to accelerate acquisition of reservoir information, improve adaptability and fexibility of development plans, adopt the most economical ways to reduce uncertainty of oil reservoirs, and maximize the efforts to eliminate the possible infuence caused by development risks.