基于时间序列法的公交车站间行程时间预测模型研究——以苏州1路公交为例

Research on Bus Inter-site Travel Time Prediction Model: A Case Study Based on Suzhou No.1 Bus Route

准确预测公交站间行程时间是先进的出行者信息系统(ATIS)的核心,是公交运营和管理的关键问题之一。本文采用改进的时间序列法进行公交车辆站间行程时间预测,利用游程检验法检验时间序列平稳性,并借鉴EMD算法把非平稳时序分解为若干个平稳时序的线形组合,然后对每个平稳时序用指数平滑模型预测。最后,依托苏州1路公交运行数据对该预测模型进行验证,结果表明,该预测模型不仅能够准确的预测公交站间行程时间,还能增强时间序列法对于突发事件的反应能力,大幅提高预测精度。

The effective prediction of bus inter-site travel time is the key information of Advanced Traveler Information System （ATIS） and is crucial to bus operation and management. The paper applies modified time series method to predict bus inter-site travel time. Run Test is used to test the stability of times series and EMD algorithm is applied to decompose the unstable time series into piecewise linear time series. Index smoothing model is then used to predict each time series. The forecasting model is tested based on real-world data collected for the No. 1 bus route in the city of Suzhou. Results indicate that themodel can accurately predict bus inter-site travel time and yield robust prediction under unexpected events.