第三方支付对存款准备金制度影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Effect of Deposit Reserve System of the Third-party Payment

存款准备金政策是中央银行制度下重要的货币政策。文章将第三方支付引入存款准备金制度理论框架,在理论分析及对传统货币乘数模型修正基础上探讨第三方支付对存款金制度的影响,并具体选取第三方支付与存款准备金制度相关的变量,建立数量经济模型进行实证分析。研究表明:第三方互联网支付放大了货币乘数,而且使货币乘数内生性增强且变得更加不稳定。因此,央行通过货币乘数调控商业银行货币创造能力的难度加大,减弱了存款准备金政策的效果。

The deposit reserve policy is one of the important monetary policy tools in the central banking system. From the perspective of the third-party payment,this paper puts the third-party payment into the theoretical analysis frame of the deposit reserve system,on which and with the re-construction of the traditional monetary model the electronic model is built with the selected variables correlated with the third-party payment and deposit reserve policy. The analysis shows that the third-party internet payment enlarges the monetary multiplier,enhances the instability of money multiplier,then increases the difficulty in adjusting the commercial banks' ability to create the credit by the central bank through the deposit reserve policy and reduces the efficiency of the deposits reserve policy.