先进制造业及新兴产业用电需求预测方法

Electricity Demand Prediction for Advanced Manufacturing and Emerging Industries

为先进制造业及新兴产业提出一种用电需求预测方法,以期更加精准地预测供电负荷的电力需求。将国内生产总值(GDP)、第二产业比重(SDDP)、人均可支配收入(RJGDP)和电力客户数(DPP)作为用电需求的关键影响因素,进而研究各因素的理论分析标准和数据基础分析标准。将偏最小二乘回归模型和指数平滑模型分别应用于某市历史年数据,优选偏最小二乘回归模型,得到某市先进制造业及新兴产业用电量预测结果,指出某市将继续保持强劲的发展势头,产业结构将不断升级,注重技术研发、技术创新的产业将成为主流。预测情况与实际相一致,表明了预测方法的科学性和有效性。

A method of electricity demand prediction is proposed for advanced manufacturing and emerging industries to predict the power demand of power supply load more accurately. The gross domestic product （GDP）, the proportion of the second industry （SDDP）, the per capita disposable income （RJGDP） and the power customer number （DPP） are taken as the key factors affecting the electricity demand, to further investigate the theoretical analysis criteria and data basic analysis criteria. The partial least square regression model and exponential smoothing model are applied to data from historical years, deducing that the former is the optimum, so that the predicting results for advanced manufacturing industry and emerging industrial electricity demand is obtained for a city. The city will continue to maintain a strong momentum of development, the industrial structure will continue to upgrade, and industries focusing on the technology R＆D and technological innovation will become the mainstream. The prediction is consistent with the actual situation, which shows the scientificness and effectiveness of the prediction method.