人口年龄结构对中国城乡居民消费率及消费差距的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Effects of Demographic Changes on Consumption Rates and Consumption Disparity of Urban and Rural Area in China——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Data

在对中国人口年龄结构、消费率与城乡消费差距现状分析的基础上,基于2000-2014年中国省级面板数据,综合时空尺度,建立动态面板及空间面板数据模型,探究人口年龄结构对城镇消费率、农村消费率及城乡消费差距的影响.结果显示,少儿抚养比与老年抚养比对城镇居民消费率均具有正向影响,而对农村地区居民消费率则分别产生负效应和正效应;城乡少儿抚养系数比、城乡老年抚养系数比对城乡消费差距均具有正效应,且城乡居民消费差距存在空间集聚格局,呈现正的空间依赖性;"全面两孩"生育政策将改善人口年龄结构,从而有利于缩小城乡消费差距.

On the basis of the operation status,we explore the different impacts of demographic age structure on consumption rates and urban-rural consumption disparity using the dynamic panel data model and spatial panel data model. Empirical test shows that urban consumption rate has positive correlation with both youth dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio,while rural consumption rate has negative correlation with youth dependency ratio and positive correlation with elderly dependency ratio; the urban-rural consumption disparity has significant positive correlation with both the ratio of urban-rural youth dependency coefficient and the ratio of urban-rural elderly dependency coefficient. A positive spatial autocorrelation exists in urban-rural consumption Disparity,and the universal two-child policy contributes to narrow the gap.