文化抵制还是文化反弹？--西欧右翼民粹主义政党兴起的因果效应比较

Cultural Resistance or Cultural Backlash? The Comparison of Causal Effects of the Rise of Populist Radical Right in Western Europe

20世纪末期以来,西欧右翼民粹主义政党无论是获得的选票还是所具有的政治影响力与此前相比都变得不容小觑。在对当代西欧右翼民粹主义政党发展的现有研究中,从选民角度来说,主要有全球化文化抵制论和现代化文化反弹论两大类解释。前者认为越来越多的民众支持右翼民粹主义政党主要源于全球化过程中移民所带来的文化冲击。而后者则更多地强调西欧社会中传统保守主义者对自由主义文化价值观所进行的抵制。辨析和比较这两种理论的解释力,可以更加准确地把握当代西欧右翼民粹主义政党兴起的决定性因素,进而增进对欧洲政治走势的判断。本文基于2014年欧洲社会调查数据,采用匹配的因果推断方法,比较分析了全球化文化抵制和现代化文化反弹对民众右翼民粹主义政党偏好的因果效应。研究结果显示,全球化文化抵制的影响力明显强于现代化文化反弹的影响力。这意味着当代西欧右翼民粹主义政党的兴起更应归因于全球化文化抵制而不是现代化文化反弹。

Since the end of the twentieth century,populist radical right parties in Western Europe has gained unprecedented vote shares and political influence. How can we explain the rise of populist radical right parties in contemporary Western Europe?In the existing literature on demand-side factors,there are two popular explanations,namely globalization cultural resistance and modernization cultural backlash. The former argues that the increasing support for populist radical right parties lies in the cultural threat of immigration in the process of globalization. While the latter emphasizes the counter attack of the traditional conservatives in the face of widespread of liberal culture. In order to get a better understanding of the decisive factor in the rise of populist radical right parties across Western European countries,the main purpose of this paper is to compare the explanatory power of the two aforementioned theories. Based on the data from 2014 European Social Survey,this study uses the matching method to analyze the causal effects of globalization cultural resistance and modernization cultural backlash. We find that the influence of globalization cultural resistance is much stronger than that of modernization cultural backlash. It implies that the rise of populist radical right parties should be attributed more to globalization cultural resistance rather than modernization culture backlash.