提示现实因素对乐观偏差的影响机制初探

The pilot study of the effect mechanism of realistic factors on optimistic bias

乐观偏差现象已被广泛证实,为了探讨认知因素和非认知因素在乐观偏差产生中的相对作用,本研究在提示将来事件相关的保护因素和风险因素的基础上,通过指导语操纵判断目标,要求被试分别客观理性和凭借直觉对将来事件发生在自己身上的可能性和时间距离做出判断。结果显示:与无提示条件的控制组被试相比较,提示条件的两组被试(直觉判断组、理性判断组)自我风险知觉显著提高,而直觉判断组和理性判断组的自我风险知觉没有显著差异。结论:提示风险性现实因素增加自我风险知觉,且不受判断目标的影响。这表明提示现实因素对乐观偏差的影响是认知因素与非认知因素综合作用的结果。

Optimism bias is a most robust and widely replicated phenomenon. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect mechanism of protect and risk factors on optimistic bias. Participants in two ex- perimental groups required to judgment the possibility and temporal distance on the basis of objective rationality and intuition respectively. Whereas participants in the control group were only asked to eval- uate the possibility and subjective temporal distance of future events which maybe happen to them. The results found that compared to subjects in the control group, judgment of self-risk perception in the two groups of subjects （intuitive judgment group and rational judgment group） significantly improved, but judgment of self-risk perception between groups of intuitive judgment and rational judgment had no sig- nificant difference. This results indicate that the effect of cuing realistic factors on optimistic bias is the result of the comprehensive effect of various kinds of factors.