人口红利概念及对中国人口红利的再认识——聚焦于人口机会的分析

The Concept of Demographic Dividend and Reconsideration of Demographic Dividend in China:Focusing on the Demographic Opportunity

人口红利是建立在人口机会窗口上的经济学概念。收获人口红利的前提条件是有利于经济增长的人口机会,充分必要条件是与人口机会相适应的经济社会发展政策。人口红利有数量型和质量型之分,前者以人力资源优势为基础,后者以人力资本为基础,二者的周期必有重叠,收获质量型人口红利的潜力更大且更具可持续性。依据人口发展规律,21世纪上半叶,中国人口快速老龄化与劳动年龄人口数量高台期相伴,劳动力资源存量虽减但规模庞大,人口抚养比相对较低,人口综合素质有了质的飞跃,低龄老年人力资源规模巨大且质量改善,收获数量型人口红利的人口机会窗口越关越小,收获质量型人口红利的人口机会窗口越开越大,两个人口机会重叠并正加速从数量型红利向质量型红利转变。与此同时,深化供给侧结构性改革、加快建设创新型国家、优先发展教育事业、提高就业质量和人民收入水平、实施健康中国等新时代新发展战略布局,初步奠定了继续收获新人口红利和再创经济辉煌的政策基础。

Demographic dividend is an economics concept based on demographic opportunity window. The prerequisite to harvest demographic dividend is population opportunity which is beneficial to economic growth. The necessary and sufficient condition is social economy development policy which is consistent with demographic opportunity. The demographic dividend is divided into quantitative and qualitative types. The former is based on human resources, while the latter is on the basis of human capital. These two types must overlap. The potential of harvesting the qualitative dividend is bigger and sustainable. According to the law of population development, in the first half of the twenty-first century, the rapidly aging of population in China is accompanied by the huge scale of working-age population. The characteristics of this period are that the stock of labor resources is reducing while remains huge, the population dependency ratio is relatively low, and the population comprehensive quality is significantly enhancing. The young elderly human resources are huge and the quality is improving. Therefore, the demographic window of the quantitative dividend is closing, while the demographic window of the qualitative dividend is opening. The demographic dividend will accelerate transition from the quantitative dividend to qualitative dividend. Meanwhile, furthering supply-side structural reform, making China a country of innovators, prioritizing the development of education, improving the quality of employment and personal income,and implementing the new era of development strategy such as healthy China establish a policy foundation of harvesting demographic dividend and ensuring the economic glory.