中国人口生育模式的离散趋势研究

Research on the Dispersion of the Age Pattern of Fertility in China

文章参照已有死亡模式的研究方法和思路,通过国家和地区间比较探究中国人口生育模式离散趋势的转变规律,阐明其与生育水平转变的主要差异,以揭示中国人口生育行为的实质性转变进程。研究发现,中国人口生育模式的离散趋势在2005年以前相对稳定:既滞后于发达国家和地区生育模式转变的一般规律,也滞后于中国生育水平的转变进程。2005年以后,中国生育模式的离散趋势迅速达到发达国家和地区的水平,反映出中国人口生育行为在生育时间上的多样化转变。这表明中国的生育水平降至低生育水平约10年后,生育模式才基本达成与低生育水平的实质性匹配,也意味着2005年之后中国的低生育水平更可能是生育观念转变下育龄妇女生育意愿的真实反映。随着生育模式的进一步转变,长期来看中国生育水平仍存在下降风险。

Based on methods and ideas in mortality studies, this paper explores the dispersion of China's age pattern of fertility as well as the main difference in transformation between the age pattern of fertility and total fertility in China through countries and regions' comparison, so as to reveal the substantive changing process of China's fertility behavior. According to the results, the dispersion of the age pattern of fertility in China was long-term stable before 2005. It lagged behind not only the average level of developed countries and regions, but also the changing process of China's total fertility. After 2005, it quickly surpassed the average level of developed countries and regions, indicating the new trend of diversification of birth timing in China. It implies that not until about ten years after China entered the low fertility era did the age pattern of fertility complete a real match with the low fertility. It also implies that, under the change of fertility, the low fertility in China is more likely to be a real reflection of childbearing age women's desire. With the further transformation of pattern of fertility, there is a high risk of decline in the fertility level in the future.