中国老年人失能时间研究

The Disability Duration of the Elderly in China

文章基于2008~2011年中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查数据,通过logit模型研究死亡概率、自理状态转移概率的影响因素,并在此基础上运用自理状态生命表估算了不同特征老年人群体的余寿和预期失能时间。结果发现:(1)65岁老年人的平均余寿约为16.04年,其中预期完全自理、轻度失能、中度失能、重度失能的时间分别为10.11年、4.42年、0.88年、0.63年;随着年龄增加,老年人预期中度、重度失能时间占余寿的比重快速上升;女性老年人的平均余寿比男性老年人长2.47年,但女性老年人的预期失能时间比男性老年人长2.26年,其中预期中度、重度失能时间长0.77年。(2)居住在城镇、有医疗保险的老年人死亡风险低、平均余寿长,但预期失能时间特别是中度、重度失能时间较长。(3)在婚、有健康生活习惯(如经常体育锻炼、不吸烟、不喝酒)的老年人死亡风险低、平均余寿长,且预期完全自理时间相对较长。文章认为,随着社会保障制度的不断完善,在中国老年人寿命延长的同时,失能时间也相应增加,政府应出台政策支持老年人家庭以减轻其照料负担;给予丧偶老年人更多的情感支持和精神慰藉,鼓励和引导老年人形成健康的生活习惯,这对"健康老龄化"有着重要意义。

Based on the 2008-2011 CLHLS data, this paper studies the influence factors of death probability and self-care state transition probability by using the logistic model, and estimates the life expectancy and expected duration of disability of different characteristics of the elderly by using self-care state life table. The results find that:(1) the average life expectancy of the elderly at 65 is about 16.04 years, and the expected duration of complete self-care, mild disability,moderate disability and severe disability are 10.11, 4.42, 0.88 and 0.63 years, respectively. With the increase of age, the proportion of expected moderate and severe disability duration increase rapidly. The average life expectancy of the female elderly is 2.47 years longer than that of the male elderly. However, their disability duration is 2.26 years longer than that of the male elderly, and moderate and severe disability duration are 0.77 years longer than that of the male elderly.(2)The elderly who live in the urban areas and with medical insurance have lower risk of death and longer life expectancy.However, the time that they are expected to be in a long time state of disability, especially in moderate and severe disability states.(3) The elderly who live with their couple and have good health behaviors, such as regular physical exercise, no smoking and no alcohol, have lower risk of death and longer life expectancy, and have a longer duration in complete self-care state. Under the background of population aging, the life expectancy of the elderly is prolonged with the continuous improvement of social security system while the disability duration is also increasing. The government should introduce policies to support families to reduce their care burden, give the widowed elderly more emotional support and spiritual consolation, encourage and guide the elderly to form good health habits. Those are of great significance to"healthy aging".