基于模糊综合评价模型的农村宅基地流转风险评价

Empirical Research on Evaluating Risk of Rural Homestead Transfer on Fuzzy Evaluation Model

农村宅基地功能的特殊性及对农民的重要性，决定了宅基地制度改革的敏感性和风险性。如何让改革的风险最小化，利益最大化，是该项制度改革成功的关键，因此研究农村宅基地使用权流转的风险问题十分必要。文章在界定农村宅基地流转风险内涵的基础上，从农户的“经济、社会、环境和保障因素”四个维度构建宅基地流转的农户个体风险评估体系，然后运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对广东省翁源县的样本数据进行实证评估，得出农户个体风险处于“中警”级别，应重点关注家庭农业收入占比、家庭自我发展能力和新环境适应能力等具体微观的敏感性指标带来的风险问题。

For the speciality of rural homestead and its importance to farmers, the system reform of rural homestead is filled with sensitiveness and risk. How to minimize risk and maximize profit is the key to the reform, so it is necessary to explore the risk problem of rural homestead transfer （RHT）. The paper, based on defining the risk of RHT, selected 4 aspects including economy, society, environment and insurance to set up early warning indicators for farmer＇s individual, and then employed methods of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to assess the risk of RHT by survey data of Wengyuan County in Guangdong Province. The results showed that farmer＇s individual risk of RHT is at a moderate alarm level, and close attention should be paid to the risk brought about by some sensitive indicators like the percentage of farmer household＇s agricultural income, the capacity of their self-development and the adaptability of new circumstances.