基于STIRPAT-岭回归的电能替代潜力分析方法

Electric Power Substitution Potential Analysis Method Based on STIRPAT-Ridge Regression

随着生态环境问题日趋严重,有效推进电能替代战略实施刻不容缓。定量分析电能替代潜力影响因素,对正确实施电能替代,从而优化能源布局、保护生态环境、促进节能减排等方面具有重要指导意义。因此,采用北京市2006—2015年电能替代量排放时间序列数据,基于STIRPAT模型,利用岭回归拟合得到终端电能替代量与常住人口数、人均GDP、终端电能消费强度、能源价格、能源使用量、政策支持的多元线性模型。拟合结果证明,STIRPAT模型能够提供一个简单地分解影响电能替代潜力因素的分析框架,并定量评价出各个因素的作用。

With the increasingly serious ecological and environmental of electric power substitution. Quantitative analysis of the influencing problems, it is urgent to effectively promote the strategy factors of electric power substitution potential is of great guiding significance to the correct implementation of electric power replacement, so as to optirnize the energy distribution, protect the ecological environment, promote energy conservation and emission reduction. Therefore, this paper builds a STIRPAT-based multivariate linear model fitted by a ridge regression to examine the relationship between terminal power replacement and a list of influencing factors, including resident population, per capita GDP, terminal energy consumption intensity, energy price, energy use quantity, policy support. The fitting results show that the STIRPAT model can provide an analytical framework to decompose the factors that affect the potential of electric power substitution and quantitatively evaluate the effect of various factors.