汇率对我国就业与工资影响的门限效应分析

The Threshold Effect of Exchange Rate on China's Employment and Wages

采用门限模型估算汇率对我国就业与工资影响的非线性效应,结果表明:当汇率波动处于-0.0233之上时,人民币贬值能显著降低失业率和提高工资水平,但是弹性均相对较小;当汇率波动处于-0.0233之下时,贬值同样可以降低失业率和提高工资水平,并且弹性更大。因此,不同波幅下汇率对就业与工资的影响程度不同,为了稳定就业率和提高工资水平,应该防止人民币的大幅升值。

The article studies the nonlinear effect of exchange rate on China＇s employment and wages. The results show that： when the exchange fate＇s volatility is above -0.0233, the devaluation of the RMB could significantly reduce the unemployment rate and improve the level of wages, but the elasticity is relatively small; when the exchange rote fluctuation is below -0.0233, the depreciation can also reduce the unemployment rate and improve the level of wages, but with more elasticity. Therefore, given that the impact of exchange rate＇s volatility on the employment and wage varies, in order to stabilize the employment rate and improve the level of wages, the government should perfect our country＇s exchange rote system to prevent the sharp appreciation of the RMB.